The year 2024 is the year when nearly half of the planet is voting. In more than 60 countries across the world, we have elections taking place, meaning that the political climate is destabilized and current governments and presidential seats are up for grabs. Elections present nations with the opportunity to change their future. So, how people vote and the criteria they use for decision-making have always been a subject of interest among political analysts and social scientists.
Traditionally, the most dominant way of looking into the voters’ intentions and behavior in the built-up to the election day was through polling. Surveying how will people choose to vote and which candidate they prefer was -and in fact, still is- a very effective way of getting the society’s pulse and making realistic predictions. But in the last few years, besides polls, bets have also emerged as very effective and efficient ways of political predictions.
Bookmakers have always been offering markets for political events and elections, but with the internet and widespread access to the web, betting sites have taken political betting to another level. Now, more people can bet on the outcome of elections on let’s say some Indian election betting sites instead of only those who were able to find bookies providing them with this opportunity. Today there even are politics bet sites that focus entirely on compiling odds for key political events such as the election odds for India or other parts of the world, which demonstrates how much this subject has entered the world of wagers.
Bets are considered by some analysts more reliable and credible in predicting elections than polls. There are three reasons for this.
The first reason is that bets reflect what people believe or expect to happen and not what they would prefer it happened, or what they want to happen. When betting, people are not emotionally driven. Unlike sports betting, where emotions can’t be ruled out – as for example, in cricket betting which could involve a fan backing his favorite team at https://onlinecricketbetting.tv/- political betting is more distant. People try to be more objective and make more informed decisions based on relevant statistics, data, information, and their sense of what is likely to occur. There’s money at stake, so they are far more cautious than simply taking part in a survey, where there are no implications or consequences for their responses.
Answering questions about upcoming elections may involve a great deal of emotions and too often voters who are taking part in polls are expressing their feelings or immediate reactions to what is going on in the political scene. Polls are like snapshots of the very moment they are carried out. Opposite to this, bets are long-term estimations. People usually bet on who will win the elections, and they are making a decision on what is going to happen not now but in the future. So, they get some distance which helps them get rid of any emotions and make more “rational” decisions.
The second reason is that pollsters are generally interested in the opinions of people. They keep asking the same question to the participants at different points in time, essentially regarding their vote if elections were to take place tomorrow. Opinions don’t cost, so it is literally much of the sentiment that dominates. Alternatively, when we have bettors we are talking money and backing an outcome that they have all the good reasons – at least the estimated ones- to believe that it is going to occur.
The third reason has to do with the sample. In polls, analysts will get the most representative sample in order to be able to draw conclusions on the general population. But this means that there is a wide range of participants who don’t respond sincerely or in a reliable manner. On the other hand, when we are using betting to generate predictions on elections we are certain that the sample is self-selected. Bettors have picked their own selves to “take part” in the informal study. They are the ones to voluntarily go to a betting app or platform and place a wager, which most presumably is driven by some kind of research and or some kind of edge.
Political betting can be a very good source of information for estimating elections’ outcomes, however, you should never take anything for granted. It has a good predictive power, but politics are sometimes like sports, unpredictable, dynamic, and fluid!